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LU9DCE > ALERT    05.12.21 16:50l 106 Lines 4342 Bytes #730 (0) @ WW
BID : 8177_LU9DCE
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 05-DIC.21
Path: PI8DRE<PI8CDR<DB0RES<ON0AR<SV1CMG<SV1CMG<ZL2BAU<GB7YEW<LU9DCE
Sent: 211205/1531Z 8177@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.22

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           / (_/\) \/ (\__  )) D (( (__  ) _)    ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \ 
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               ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
                   BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
                     Copyright 2021 - Eduardo A. Castillo
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    SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center en-us None
    spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov)
    spc.feedback@noaa.gov (spc.feedback@noaa.gov) Sun, 05 Dec 2021
    03:45:02 +0000 Sun, 05 Dec 2021 03:45:02 +0000 general 1

      SPC Forecast Products

      SPC - No watches are valid as of Sun Dec  5 03:45:02 UTC 2021 No
      watches are valid as of Sun Dec  5 03:45:02 UTC 2021.  Sun, 05
      Dec 2021 03:44:09 +0000
	SPC MD 1956 MD 1956 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR CENTRAL AND
	EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1956 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0943
PM CST Sat Dec 04 2021

Areas affected...Central and eastern North Dakota

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 050343Z - 050745Z

SUMMARY...A zone of around 1 inch per hour snowfall rates is probable
within the next 1-4 hours in parts of central and eastern North
Dakota.

DISCUSSION...A broad zone of snowfall has continued to develop within
a warm advection zone across much of North Dakota into west-central
Minnesota. A subtle shortwave trough is becoming more evident on water
vapor satellite imagery in the MT/ND border vicinity. This feature is
forecast to dig southward this evening. As this occurs, increasing
mid-level ascent will couple with the 850-700 mb warm advection zone
to produce areas of higher snowfall rates over the next 1-4 hours. The
modest mid-level ascent suggests that snowfall rates of around 1 inch
per hour will generally be the peak for the event. However, localized
higher rates up to 1.5 inches per hour could briefly occur,
particularly in east-central North Dakota.

..Wendt.. 12/05/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   47490170 48010221 48550136 48169827 47599645 47109631
	    46469656 46429699 46749923 46970009 47490170
Read more
	Sun, 05 Dec 2021 03:44:04 +0000
      SPC Dec 5, 2021 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook SPC 0100Z Day
      1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 PM
CST Sat Dec 04 2021

Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from east Texas and southern
Oklahoma, through parts of the mid South.

...01z Update...

Weak upper vort/short-wave trough has sheared east across northern AL
and earlier convection, with isolated lightning, has mostly
dissipated. A secondary upper vort is settling east-southeast across
the Arklatex this evening and this feature remains lightning-free with
very little convection. However, a few thunderstorms have developed,
and continue, within deeper moisture axis across the upper TX Coastal
region. This activity has shown enough longevity to suggest it may not
dissipate quickly this evening. Will extend thunder probabilities
south to include more of southeast TX in thunder.

00z sounding from SHV exhibited substantial conditional instability
this evening with steep lapse rates. While surface-based parcels are
inhibited, northern extent of this air mass will experience increasing
low-level warm advection later tonight as southern branch of LLJ
begins to strengthen across northeast TX/southeast OK into western AR.
Given the thermodynamic profile at SHV there is some concern for
robust elevated convection after midnight. At this time it appears
convection will remain somewhat isolated and vertical shear is not
forecast to be that strong. While some hail could be noted with the
strongest updrafts, will not introduce severe probabilities across
this region as hail sizes should remain mostly below 1 inch.

..Darrow.. 12/05/2021
Read more
      Sun, 05 Dec 2021 00:36:18 +0000

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